MetroDynamics (MD) and Situation & Outlook (S&O) November quarterly update (11/10/09)

Current estimates and projections are developed/updated quarterly for the U.S., states, metros, counties and census tracts as a part of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook Estimates & Projections (S&O) program.  S&O estimates and projections are developed using the ProximityOne Modeler.  Modeler uses multi-sourced historical estimates integrated with other wide-ranging demographic-economic measures in a simultaneous equation model.  Model cause and effect equations reflect joint dependency between demographic and economic variables.

National scope CountyTrends datasets are derived from the S&O database.  The CountyTrends datasets provide historical data, current estimates and projections to 2020 for a mix of annual to monthly trend data for all counties.  Datasets are structured so that the same scope of subject matter is available for metros, states and the U.S.  See scope of subject matter for CountyTrends Dataset 1 (population components of change and labor force measures) and CountyTrends Dataset 2 (single year of age by race/ethnicity and gender).   See also census tract estimates and projections.

Join us in a Web meeting where these estimates and projections are reviewed in an analytical context.

The U.S. Federal statistical system is comprised of a set of decentralized and diverse statistical programs operated by many statistical agencies.  The new section http://proximityone.com/fssbudget.htm section provides information about the scope of these agencies and programs and funding for FY 2008, 2009 and 2010.  Data are based on the Statistical Programs of the United States Government: Fiscal Year 2010 document released September 29, 2009, by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.  The interactive ranking table enables differently ranked views of budget amounts, departments and/or agency/programs.  Links enable direct connect with statistical programs/agencies.

Voting and registration data are collected biennially in the November Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS a monthly survey of households conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These state-level voting and registration data from the November 2008 CPS are organized in the form of interactive ranking table at http://proximityone.com/voting2008.htm. Use the population group filter to rank/examine patterns among voting and registration patterns among states for selected gender and race/ethnicity groups.

The Census 2010 P.L. 94-171 data will be released by the Census Bureau for use in reapportionment and redistricting by April 1, 2011.  Using the Census 2010 Dress Rehearsal data, released earlier this year, Proximity is developing a downloadable GIS application that can be used to illustrate how these data can be used.  See http://proximityone.com/cen2010.htm for more information.

Updated on DMIGateway features ... see details at http://proximityone.com/cen2010.htm#102709a

ProximityOne State Decision-Making Information Web pages updated.

See general SRDMI main page -- http://proximityone.com/srdmi.htm.

New 2007-08 K-12 school and school district data are now available. View selected characteristics of operating K-12 public schools and enrollment for the 2007-08 school year by state using the new interactive ranking table at http://proximityone.com/k12_state.htm

The new section http://proximityone.com/rcne0507.htm provides a ranking table of school districts to examine distributions of school age children not enrolled in school (Relevant Children Not Enrolled -- RCNE).  This section reviews tools and methods available to examine characteristics, patterns and trends of  based on data from the new American Community Survey 2005-07 School District Special Tabulation.

See related:

-- About the ACS 2005-07 School District Special Tabulation -- http://www.proximityone.com/cen2010.htm#081509a

-- Assessing the Impact of the RCNE Population

-- Children's Demographics

New September 2009 estimates ... use County Monthly Employment and Unemployment Trends tools and resources (see http://proximityone.com/county_employment.htm), updated monthly, to learn about employment and unemployment trends in your counties of interest. What trends will change when and where? How will this impact you?

Each month Proximity develops an extract file from the MetroDynamics (MD) database focused on county employment and unemployment trends. The extract file includes monthly projections based on the county-level employment and unemployment data published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  Projections are developed by Proximity using the MD Modeler, related data and multi-scenario assumptions. The MD extract data are integrated into a shapefile for visual analysis. The shapefile is added to a CommunityViewer GIS project to develop many different types of employment-unemployment geospatial analyses and maps. Unlike PDF and webserver maps, you can integrate your data with these tools to examine prospective future impact on your projects, programs and operations.

As an example, the U.S. by county September 2009 data are released by BLS on October 29, 2009 (see Integrated Federal Statistical Data Access Calendar for this and upcoming monthly access dates) are integrated into MD the same week, estimates and projections are updated, and the shapefile is developed.  

View how these data are organized for analysis in the CountyTrends Dataset 1 -- http://proximityone.com/ctd1details.htm.

Updated monthly like the county employment-unemployment estimates, the most recent state-by-state official estimates of employment and unemployment are presented in the new section http://proximityone.com/state_employment.htm in the form of an interactive ranking table. These current estimates are presented with six alternative measures of labor underutilization.

The U-1 through U-6 alternative unemployment measures are presented for two recent periods enabling the ability to examine change for each type of unemployment measure.  The official measure of unemployment (referred to as U-3 in the U-1 to U-6 range of alternative measures) includes all jobless persons who are available to take a job and have actively sought work in the past four weeks. Other measures are provide more narrowly (U-1 and U-2) and broadly (U-4 through U-6) defined measures.

Weekly CV GIS User Sessions

November Web Sessions

November 19, 2009; 12:00-2:00 p.m. Eastern Time; Topics include:

Analyzing County Population Projections to 2020

... Examining county population projections to 2020 by single year age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, annual updates

... Updates released 11/10/09

... Examining patterns in selected counties and multi-county areas.

Register here: http://proximityone.com/webmeetings.htm

CommunityViewer Updates ...

-- News & Updates section added to CV User Guide

-- GetWebGeodata feature substantially expanded; renamed GeoGateway

-- Weekly CV GIS User Webinars

The Applications Gallery http://proximityone.com/gallery/guide illustrates wide-ranging applications and projects developed using CommunityViewer and related geodemographic-economic resources.   This section reviews new and updated topics.

-- Greenville, NC MSA/Pitt County School District

-- Chicago Area Schools/School Districts

Census Day is April 1, 2010, and marks the reference date for Census 2010 data.  The Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) is now integrally linked with Census 2010.  The "Census 2010/ACS" DMINews section provides monthly highlights of current and pending developments regarding these programs.  The focus is on data access and use and to a lesser extent data development and related operations. Proximity will continue to maintain the decennial census focused Web pages Census 2000 and Census 2010.

FY2010 Census Bureau Budget with details on Census 2010/ACS. See http://proximityone.com/fssbudget.htm

RankingTables -- http://proximityone.com/rankingtables.htm

-- FY2010 Federal Statistical System Budget by Agency/Program -- http://proximityone.com/fssbudget.htm

-- School Age Children Not Enrolled in School by School District -- http://proximityone.com/rcne0507.htm

-- County Employment/Unemployment Trends -- http://proximityone.com/county_employment.htm

-- State Employment/Unemployment Trends; Alternative Unemployment Measures -- http://proximityone.com/state_employment.htm

-- K-12 Schools by Type and Enrollment by State -- http://proximityone.com/k12_state.htm