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Developing School District Demographic Estimates and Projections Accurate projections of school district demographics are essential for many reasons. They form the basis for planning the infrastructure to meet the needs of educational programs. We need to be able to answer questions like: • how will the school district community change in the years ahead? • how will the size and pattern of total students change in terms of total, enrolled, enrolled public, enrolled private and not enrolled? • what is/will be/ the size and impact of relevant children not enrolled on your community? • how many students will we have? • how will students be geographically distributed? By knowing "where we are" and "where we will be" in several years help us determine budget, staffing, classroom space and other needs. Almost all school districts develop some type of annually updated demographic estimates and projections. Projections are developed with wide ranging methods and result in wide ranging quality. The School District Demographic Estimates and Projections (SDDEP) is an integrated software and database application designed to produce annual demographic estimates and projections for the period 2000 through 2017. This is a 10 year projection with the starting projection year being 2008 (though 2007 is actually a projection also at this time). The process makes use of a simultaneous equation modeling structure. A 10 year projection is technically too far out due to the range of factors that can affect change. However, this time frame is particularly important in the population ages 5-17 due to the changes that we expect to start to appear in 2012 and thereafter. Using updated baseline data, a user would develop updated projections (revised 2007 through 2017 and new 2018 data) a year from now (the annual baseline data would normally update in October of each year) and so on. The geographic infrastructure is nominally counties and school districts (the same approach can be applied to cities or special districts). A set of equations develops control population projections at the county level and makes use of official county estimates. A related set of equations develops the same scope of projections for school districts by county part. The school district parts, where applicable are then brought together with summarizing equations. School district county parts are determined by associating census blocks with the school district parts by county. The SDDEP structure/model is designed for single-to-many school districts in one county or multi-county regions with districts overlapping county boundaries and other districts in more complex situations. The projection methodology makes use of a mixed modified age cohort projection methodology and simultaneous equation modeling. The underlying data used in the model estimation include Census 2000 single year of age data (to the block level), annual post-censal census estimates, annual school district enrollment data, and other data. The "standard SDDEP" subject matter projected at the county and school district levels are: total population ages: 0-4, 5-17, 5 year age groups 0-4 through 80-84 and 85 and over total [grade] relevant children (age groups 0-4 and 5-17 for each relevant children component) enrolled private public not enrolled total housing units occupied units (households) vacant units SDDEP is a Win32 application that runs on your computer. SDDEP enables the user to specify migration and certain other assumptions. The user can re-run the model to produce an alternative set of estimates/projections. The output is generated in spreadsheet and dbase structure enabling use of the resulting data by other programs. Separate race/ethnicity and gender breakout specifications (in the models) can be added. Workshops, Training and Support. Participate in a Developing Demographic Estimates and Projections workshop. Face-to-face sessions are conducted at several locations in 2008. Workshop sessions are one day and computer hands-on (user own computer). Attendees use SDDEP with demonstration districts in workshop. The morning session of the workshop is focused on SDDEP operation: developing the estimates and projections. The afternoon session covers 1) use and interpretation of the SDDEP estimates and projections and 2) developing more detailed geodemographics (estimates and projections are not automatically produced for these items, they are potential augmentations): -- Attendance zone estimates and projections • "school district community" and enrollment • use of feeder patterns • integrating local annual planned housing development data, etc.) -- Additional subject matter detail • race/ethnicity and gender • other selected socioeconomic measures Training and support are also available a web meeting format focused on your district(s). Get Started Today. The base fee for SDDEP for a single school district is $1,995. (single school district contained in one county; school districts under 25,000 total population) Click to order (specify school district with your order): Register for quotes for multiple districts and districts covering parts of more than one county. -- Include "SDDEP Quote Request" in text section. |
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