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School, School District & Multi-Area Demographic Estimates & Projections

  Decision-Making Information
    Contact Proximity for information
  resources and solutions ...
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Knowledge of current and changing school, school district and children's demographics are essential for many reasons. These demographics form the basis for:

  • planning for infrastructure to meet the needs of educational programs;
  • understanding the changing landscape of clientele/populations
      served by businesses, associations and government;
  • analyzing performance and educational progress;
  • assessing population flows schools to college, workforce and otherwise;
  • examining societal needs and community impact of school
      and post-school age populations.

ProximityOne Demographic Estimates & Projections
Proximity develops national scope school/school district/multi-area annual estimates and 5 year projections of selected public and private K-12 school and school district characteristics. Estimates and projections are developed using models that simultaneously produce multi-area estimates and projections by school, school district, census tract, ZIP code tabulation area, city/place, county, metro, congressional district, state and U.S.

Estimates and Projections Schedule 2010-2012   click to view   print

Enrollment Universes
Estimates and projections are developed for several population universes for all geographic areas (not schools). These universes are the same as used in the annual American Community Survey (ACS) School District Special Tabulation (SDST) sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education. The ACS SDST data are integrated into the development of the estimates and projections. Approximately 600 population and housing subject matter items are estimated in the annual ACS SDST for each of the following universes:

RCGrade relevant children, ages 0-19 NHSG -- Enrolled and not Enrolled
RCE    Grade relevant children, ages 0-19 NHSG -- Enrolled
RCEPB        Grade relevant children, ages 0-19 NHSG -- Enrolled Public Schools
RCEPV        Grade relevant children, ages 0-19 NHSG -- Enrolled Private Schools
RCNE    Grade relevant children, ages 0-19 NHSG -- Not Enrolled

A subset of the ACS SDST items are estimated/projected for each of the above universes. "Grade relevant" refers to the population of ages who are in grades offered by the school district. The "grade relevant population ages 5-17 enrolled in public school" closely approximates the public school district enrollment.

School District/Multi-Area Geography Subject Matter Fields
More than 200 subject matter items are estimated/projected annually for each public and private school (SchoolBase, see below). More than 1,000 subject matter items are estimated/projected annually for each school district, census tract, ZCTA, city/place, county, metro, congressional district, state and the U.S. (the "multi-area" geography) for the total population and each of the enrollment universes.

Four types of demographic profiles (general demographics, social characteristics, economic characteristics, housing characteristics) are developed using the multi-area estimates and projections. In total, approximately 6,000 subject matter items are estimated/projected for each type of multi-area geography. The scope of subject matter is illustrated in the expanding text section below.

  Illustrative School District Demographic Profiles   click to view   print

SchoolBase
The ProximityOne SchoolBase contains a data record for each of the approximate 135,000 U.S. public and private K-12 schools. SchoolBase was initially developed using school-level data reported by state education agencies (SEA). Annually updated SEA school attributes are included in SchoolBase. New schools, dissolved schools, and changes to school grade structures are monitored continuously. Changes to individual school attributes are updated in the school master database immediately and used in the subsequent set of revised estimates, current estimates and projections.

The SchoolBase master record includes an accurate latitude-longitude for each school developed and updated by ProximityOne. The latitude-longitude enables association of each school location with the corresponding census block geocode (and thus all higher level geography). The school location census tract and contiguous tracts, plus a potentially extended tract set, serves as a pseudo attendance zone.

  Illustrative School Profile   click to view   print

Methodology & Geographic Relationships
Estimates and projections are developed using a simultaneous equation system of equations. A basic model specification is used but models vary from area to area to reflect unique geographic and cause and effect situations. Models are estimated using annual data and re-estimated as more recent data become available; published estimates and projections are then revised/updated. The models use a combination of demographic, economic, environmental and infrastructure components. The behavior of jointly dependent variables are specified in cause and effect and identity equations linking sectors into a holstic, dynamic system.

The models enable the development of multi-scenario estimates and projections which might be viewed as more conservative or more liberal with regard to the magnitude and rates of change. Published estimates and projections are considered to be the most likely, middle-of-the-road, outcomes.

Location, Location, Location. Population is born into, or moves in or out of, an area one person at a time. Households evolve or dissolve one household at a time. Housing units are built, modified, or demolished one unit at a time, even though sometimes in multi-unit structures. Housing units are occupied or vacated one unit at a time. And so on. Where possible, our methodology makes use of as much micro-level data as feasible. These data are very localized, to the extent of individual addresses. We integrate a wide range of very localized data including existing housing units by address, housing sales, building permits, tax parcel attributes, among others.

Linking Geography: GeoBase Equivalence File. From a geospatial perspective, schools are treated as points (latitude-longitude locations) and areas (tracts, school districts, etc.) are treated as polygons. Individual schools are related to areas by the GeoBase Equivalence File. The equivalence file contains a record for each school and its corresponding census block, census block group, census tract, school district, city/place, ZIP code tabulation area, congressional district, county, state, among other areas. The equivalence file is used to associate parts/component areas of higher level geography. The common geographic thread among all of these areas is the census block.

Custom-Defined Territories: Census Tract Contiguity File. A related Census Tract Contiguity File provides a list of all census tracts that touch any given census tract. The contiguity file also contains a count of contiguity touch points between any two touching tracts. The contiguity file enables development of custom defined territories that are comprised of contiguous tract sets, such as trade areas, sales territories and school attendance zones. Geographic boundaries and estimates and projections are developed by ProximityOne for pseudo school district attendance zones using contiguous tract territories.

Using demographic-economic measures of similarity between contiguous tracts, territories may be developed which tend to associate "most-like" contiguous tracts. The evolution of a set of tracts representing a trade area or school attendance zone can proceed to grow until some target measure is achieved (e.g. number of sales or students in a certain age group). This process can help organizations develop more optimal territory geographic definitions for now and in consideration of future events.

Alternative Scenarios: What-ifs
The annual estimates and projections represent what we believe to be the mostly likely scenario. Some analyses might like to apply other assumptions in the models. Develop low and high interval estimates and projections. The Modeler software, structural models and underlying database are optionally available for users to produce alternative scenario estimates and projections. Add-in custom impact and budgeting modeling. Assess the effect of alternative budget, infrastructure and/or policy variables.

Estimates & Projections Access
The demographic estimates and projections are available on a national or state-by-state basis in CSV format and optionally integrated into shapefile format for use in GIS applications. CSV files are delivered electronically. Data are also available in ProximityOne Enterprise server. The demographic estimates and projections are also available in profile and comparative analysis formats by interactive Web access.

Custom Estimates & Projections
Proximity develops custom estimates and projections for enrollment and other demographics for schools, school districts and other geographies. These custom estimates utilize more localized data, such as tax parcel data and current building permit/housing start data, not feasible with the national scope estimates and projections. Analytical services and decision-making information solutions to education agencies and stakeholder organizations regarding use of these estimates and projections on a wide range of children’s and K-12 education issues.

Additional Information
Proximity develops geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Contact Proximity (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.


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